“Russia Determined to Keep Tactical Nuclear Arms for Potential Aggressors.” October 31. english.pravda.ru/russia/kremlin/31-10-2007/99911-nuclear_arms-0/ [Google Scholar], Pravda. United Nations. Only a few dozen of the Tu-95MSs—perhaps around 44—will be modernized, while at least 10 Tu-160s were slated to be modernized by 2019, although there has been some delay. Kristensen, H. M. 2009. The grave risk of lab-created potentially pandemic pathogens, Biden should guide missile defense his own way, Air quality surveillance and control: How to improve the response to all respiratory diseases, COVID-19 included. As for non-deployed ICBM launchers, China does not seem to have a significant number of silos or road-mobile launchers that could be used to launch an ICBM—according to the estimates of the US Department of Defense, each deployed ICBM is associated with one launcher. “Tweet Posted.” October 19. https://twitter.com/nukestrat/status/1053370585831653376 [Google Scholar], Kristensen, H. M. 2019. The first public flight of the Tu-160M (sometimes referred to as Tu-160M1) prototype was conducted in January 2018 at the Gorbunov Aviation Factory in Kazan, during a visit by President Putin. 2020k. As U.S. troops have withdrawn in 2021, the group has . [24], For its sea-based deterrent Russia currently deploys 12 submarines of 3 different classes, each carrying a different model of submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). The aging Tu-160s and most of the Tu-95MSs have also been undergoing various minor upgrades for several years. In contrast, China possesses an estimated 300 nuclear weapons, or roughly 6 percent of the U.S . The big unknowns are just how many SS-27s Russia plans to produce and deploy, and how many new (RS-26 and Sarmat "heavy") ICBMs will be introduced. The US National Air and Space Intelligence Center predicted in 2017 that “the number of missiles in the Russian ICBM force will continue to decrease because of arms control agreements, aging missiles, and resource constraints” (US Air Force 2017, 26). [11] Jeanne Guillemin, Biological Weapons (New York: Columbia University Press, 2005), p. 132. [23] For the land based leg of the nuclear triad Russia currently only produces the RS-24 Yars (NATO: SS-29) road mobile ICBM. The list was released in line with the terms of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) signed by former President Barack Obama and former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in 2010. “В День России в состав Военно-Морского Флота торжественно принят новейший ракетный подводный крейсер стратегического назначения проекта «Борей-А» «Князь Владимир».” June 12. https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/[email protected]. The Federation of American Scientists, one of the leading groups providing appraisals of the world's total nuclear stockpile estimated in its 2017 review that Russia possessed a total of 6,800 nuclear warheads, 4,300 of which were active and 1,710 of which were deployed. “Источник: еще две стратегические подлодки “Борей-А” построят на “Севмаше” к 2028 году.” November 30. https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/5856741 [Google Scholar], TASS. The new boat was scheduled to join the Northern Fleet in December 2019 (TASS 2019b); however, delivery was delayed due to “certain shortcomings” discovered during sea trials (TASS 2019j). 2015. It is possible that there are more nuclear-capable systems and that this inventory is growing, but there is little public information available. Russia's Warplanes is set to become the standard reference work on the subject. Moreover, although the Nuclear Posture Review claims Russia has increased its nonstrategic nuclear weapons over the past decade, the inventory has in fact declined significantly—by about one-third—during that period (Kristensen 2019). But if you happen to live next to an ICBM silo, fear not. With nuclear weapons like the RS-28 Sarmat ICBM and the Status-6 Oceanic Multipurpose System . Due to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, there have been no on-site Type One or Type Two inspections since April 1st, 2020. “Director of National Intelligence Daniel Coats on Russia’s Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty Violation.” November 30. https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/speeches-interviews/item/1923-director-of-national-intelligence-daniel-coats-on-russia-s-inf-treaty-violation [Google Scholar], Oliker, O. Russian Federation Foreign Affairs Ministry. The missile . 2018a. [21] United Nations, Security Council, 8203rd Meeting (S/PV.8203), 17 March 2018, pg 10. Finally, despite Moscow’s frequent criticism of US missile defense, Russia is also modernizing its long-standing nuclear-armed ballistic missile defense system and designing a new ballistic missile defense interceptor (US Defense Department 2018, 9). Some analysts estimate that Russia has significantly fewer warheads assigned to nonstrategic forces (Sutyagin et al. China boasts between 50 and 75 ICBMs and four missile submarines, with a total of eight to nine planned. We estimate that these two versions now carry more warheads than all the remaining SS-18s. The Future. All types can deliver nuclear gravity bombs. “INF Diplomatic Timeline.” February 1. https://www.state.gov/t/avc/inf/287411.htm [Google Scholar], US State Department. While the Cold War is long past, the importance of arms control in Russo-American relations and the related issue of nuclear weapons for Russia remain vital concerns. Editor’s note: The Nuclear Notebook is researched and written by Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project with the Federation of American Scientists, and Matt Korda, a research associate with the project. Former National Intelligence Director Dan Coats said Russia initially tested the 9M729 to prohibited ranges from a fixed launcher, then tested it to permitted ranges from a mobile launcher (Office of the Director National Intelligence 2018). Of the stockpiled warheads, the U.S. stated in its March 2019 New START declaration that 1,365 are deployed on 656 ICBMs, SLBMs, and strategic bombers. “Foreign Military Attaches, Media Get a Look at 9N729 for Iskander-M Launchers.” January 23. https://tass.com/defense/1041360 [Google Scholar]. 1776 Eye Street, NW
"Another option for Topol-M would be to have three warheads of the type deployed on R-23UTTH/SS-24 - at about 200 kg each they would take about half of the throw-weight of the missile. The fifth Borei—Knyaz Oleg—underwent hull pressure tests in November 2016 and was originally scheduled for delivery in 2018 but was delayed for several years before finally being launched in July 2020 (TASS 2020j). In comparison, the U.S. Air Force plans to retain 400 . No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors. […] It may look the same, but the engine, the flight range and the capacity are different” (Russian Federation 2018b). “First newly-built Tu-160M to make maiden flight in 4th quarter of 2021.” December 30. https://tass.com/defense/1241341. Precise estimates vary, but it is generally believed that Russia's Armed Forces possess around forty-five Topol, sixty Topol-M, and as many as 135 mobile Yars systems. As President, can you change the game? This concept has already seen success with the Dnepr space launch vehicle, which was based on the retiring SS-18, but could soon be scaled up to include other types of retiring ICBMs like the SS-19s and SS-25s (Sputnik 2019). It is estimated that Russia currently has 679 ± 120 metric tons of weapons grade-equivalent highly enriched uranium (HEU) and approximately 128 ± 8 tons metric tons of military-use plutonium. According to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, three missile regiments were equipped with SS-27 Mod 2 ICBMs in 2020, including the completion of the scheduled upgrade at Irkutsk, which was announced in September 2020 (Russian Federation 2020a; TASS 2020a). The Bulletin elevates expert voices above the noise. The second prototype of the upgraded Tu-22M3M conducted its first flight in March 2020, and has since conducted four additional flight tests––one of which tested the plane’s resilience at supersonic speeds (TASS 2020l). Russia has also developed a new long-range dual-capable air-launched ballistic missile known as the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal. We estimate there are roughly 70 warheads for short-range ballistic missiles. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, between 2012 and 2020 the Strategic Rocket Force conducted ten Yars launches and five Avangard launches (Russian Federation Defense Ministry 2020c, 13). 2017. “The Regiment with the Yars-S Complex Will Begin Combat Duty in Barnaul in November.” October 18. https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/7016703 [Google Scholar], TASS. Russia, meanwhile, has a total of 6,375 weapons, with 1,326 deployed. The US military anticipates the number of ICBMs might increase to about 150 as the DF-41 and more DF-31AGs are fielded (see graph below). “Russia Nearing Deployment of New Intermediate-Range Naval Missile.” Washington Free Beacon, August 21. http://freebeacon.com/national-security/russia-nearing-deployment-of-new-intermediate-range-naval-missile/ [Google Scholar], Gordon, M. 2017. [20] Despite this declaration, Russia has been implicated in the March 2018 attempted assassination of former Russian intelligence officer Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in the United Kingdom, which an OPCW-accredited lab in the UK determined involved a Novichok-class nerve agent. “В проекте подлодок “Ясень-М” выявили ряд конструктивных недостатков.” May 16. https://ria.ru/20190516/1553548471.html [Google Scholar], RIA Novosti. As in previous years, Putin’s remarks emphasized the need for Russia’s nuclear forces to keep pace with Russia’s competitors: “It is absolutely unacceptable to stand idle. In October 2019, the Knyaz Vladimir successfully completed a long-awaited test-launch of the Bulava SLBM from a submerged position in the White Sea, a significant milestone during its second round of sea trials (Gady 2019). 2020. TIL: Elon Musk went to Russia to bargain for some refurbished ICBMs to build rockets for SpaceX, he was subsequently spat on by one of the chief Russian designers and called a novice. [13], The USSR developed anti-personnel type-classified weapons around numerous pathogens, namely the causative agents of anthrax, brucellosis, glanders, Marburg fever, melioidosis, plague, Q fever, smallpox, tularemia, and Venezuelan Equine encephalitis. 5 The missiles carried war- heads with yields ranging from 220 kilotons to 20 megatons. Russian Federation. Beside this, where does the US keep nuclear weapons? “Statement by Vladimir Putin on additional steps to de-escalate the situation in Europe after the termination of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty).” October 26. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/64270. The first of these special submarines––the Project 09852 K-329 Belgorod––was launched in April 2019 and was originally scheduled for delivery to the Navy by the end of 2020; however, it appears that this delivery will be delayed until 2021 (TASS 2020d). 2020b. Statement for the Record: Worldwide Threat Assessment, prepared statement to the Senate Armed Services Committee, March 6, 12. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Ashley_03-06-18.pdf [Google Scholar], Brissett, W. 2017. [29] Russia blamed the breakdown of the Treaty on a U.S. propaganda campaign against Russia, and accused the United States of dismantling existing arms control infrastructure. 2019. 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